000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 82W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 12 KT. CONVECTION 
LIMITED TO A DIMINISHING SCATTERED MODERATE PATCH WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 15N ALONG 110W MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
NOTED FROM 7N TO 13N WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS 
CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 15N ALONG 126W MOVING AT W 10 KT. NO 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N83W 10N110W 9N125W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH NW MEXICO AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER DRY 
SUBSIDENT AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE NWLY FLOW 
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1026 MB IS 
CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE NE PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TO E FLOW IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE MORNING 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRES. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE FIELDS OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SWD 
OVER THE AREA AS FAR S AS 16N. W OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...A 
WEAK CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL 
OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT S IN RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE 
VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT ON STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

FURTHER S...UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALONG 
WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ALONG 122W...THESE FEATURES ARE 
ALLOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS THE ITCZ AS FAR W AS 
130W. HOWEVER...DESPITE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVES...NO ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...FRESH ELY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FLOW WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP THROUGH TOMORROW...ALLOWING 
WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN