000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 81.5W MOVE W AT 12 KT.  LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 91W MOVE W AT 12 KT.  A SMALL AREA 
OF CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 10N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N TO 15N ALONG 109W MOVE W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM 9N TO 13N WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS NOT 
ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N TO 15N ALONG 125W MOVE W 12 KT. NO 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N78W 9N105W 10N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
POINTS 11N90.2W AND 7.8N105W. OTHERWISE THERE IS ONLY ISOLATED 
SHORT LIVED CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 24N E OF 115W OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
NO WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A 
SMALL PATCH OF OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N139W. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 
130W.  WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THERE ARE NO 
CLOUDS OR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXCEPT FOR WEAK TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 95W.

THE ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND EAST OF A LINE 20N104W TO 10N125W 
IS SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.  

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. WEAK 
TROUGH IS ELSEWHERE.

GAP WINDS...BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AND 
BECOMING GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 
  
$$
FORECASTER LL