000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180955 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 79W MOVING W AT 12 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BORDER AND A SMALLER CLUSTER IS OVER THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENCOUNTERED ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTS. ONLY A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS NOTED OVER THE E PAC WATERS ALONG THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 88W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED PREVIOUSLY OVER SE NICARAGUA AND NW COSTA RICA AND IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE PAC COASTAL WATERS NEAR 11N87W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W HAS MOVED W ABOUT 12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 123W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ALONG 10N. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 11N85W 8N110W 6N140W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 111W AND W OF 130W AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 27N142W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE NEAR 15N144W. A MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH...AND IS MOVING N OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 132W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CUT OFF NEAR 27N111W IS FILLING AS IT SHIFTS SW. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF W OLD MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW SPREADING NE WITH SOME MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO CREST AT 13N135W. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONSIDERABLE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER SOUTHERN OLD MEXICO...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION WAS NOTED...MOSTLY BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 14N. DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED S OF THE ITCZ ALONG POINTS 3N78W 5N100W 8N120W 3N130W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. GAP WINDS...BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND SUNRISE TODAY INITIALLY AT 15 TO 20 KT...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 25-30 KT BRIEFLY WED MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT AT 15 TO 20 KT AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE THU. $$ FORECASTER NELSON