000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WWD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA 
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH SOME OF THIS LIKELY DUE TO 
NORMAL DIURNAL BUILDUPS. SCATTERED MODERATE IS N OF 10N W OF 91W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
THERE IS SOME SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD 
FIELD FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 102W-109W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
MINIMAL NEAR THE AXIS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 15 
KT. LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...9N84W 8N95W 9N115W 9N125W 6N140W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
113W-120W...AND WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 130W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EPAC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC 
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE RIDGING DOMINATES W OF 110W ON THE 
SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 39N138W. THIS IS PRODUCING 
TYPICAL MODERATE TRADES/WIND WAVES MAINLY W OF 125W. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED W OF 105W THROUGH EARLY WEEK. FLOW 
REMAINS MORE VARIABLE FURTHER E AROUND THE ITCZ...TROPICAL 
WAVES...AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING. A COUPLE OF SMALL LONGER 
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NWW3 SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT PULSE 
FROM DOWN UNDER TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS 
WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SETTING UP S OF 30S 
BETWEEN 90W-120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N144W. 
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE N W 
OF 127W. AN UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 19N122W THAT HAS VERY 
DRY AIR TO ITS N OFF OF BAJA. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ELY IN THE 
FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS IS SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION TO THE W. 

$$
FORECASTER WILLIS