000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA MAINLY W OF 
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE IS N OF 10N W OF 88W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
THERE IS SOME VERY SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW 
CLOUD FIELD FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 101W-105W. LITTLE DEEP 
CONVECTION NOTED OUTSIDE THAT DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION 
BELOW.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...9N84W 8N96W 9N115W 8N130W 6N140W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS N OF 5N W OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 30NM N 
AND 90NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-116W...AND FROM 5N-9N 
BETWEEN 127W-134W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OVERALL THE EPAC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC 
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE RIDGING DOMINATES W OF 110W ON THE 
SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 41N138W. THIS IS PRODUCING 
TYPICAL MODERATE TRADES/WIND WAVES MAINLY W OF 122W. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED MAINLY W OF 105W INTO EARLY WEEK. FLOW 
REMAINS MORE VARIABLE FURTHER E AROUND THE ITCZ...TROPICAL 
WAVES...AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING. A COUPLE OF SMALL LONGER 
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NWW3 SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT PULSE 
FROM DOWN UNDER TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF 
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY TO SET UP 
S OF 30S BETWEEN 90W-120W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N143W. 
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE N W 
OF 127W. AN UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 18N120W THAT HAS VERY 
DRY AIR TO ITS N OFF OF BAJA. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ELY IN THE 
FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS IS SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION TO THE W. 

$$
FORECASTER WILLIS