000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SEE BELOW UNDER ITCZ FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...7N77W 7N100W 11N110W 11N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 7.3N79.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL SEA OF CORTEZ. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST AND IS CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW 
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W. 
ONLY SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

AREA OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 105W TO 130W.

MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOIST AIR IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 
100W. EMBEDDED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE WITHIN THIS 
AREA.

$$
FORECASTER LL