000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170944 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N84W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 100W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT IS RELOCATED TO 99W BASED ON SATELLITE CLOUD MOTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-9N. SEE BELOW UNDER ITCZ FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 10N89W 8N95W 10N110W 10N120W 7N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF 7N. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N136W SSW TO AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNW 20 KT JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N141W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 14N145W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION... ABOUT 3 DEG IN DIAMETER...IS QUICKLY DROPPING SW AND BECOMING DIFFUSE JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N143W. AS THIS HAPPENS...MID/UPPER RIDGING E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N141W IS BUILDING NNE TO A CREST AT 32N127W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS IS BEING USHERED NWD OVER THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. GOES-W SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 19N E OF 130W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH MON THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER TROUGH JUST N OF THE AREA TUE. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW TO NRN MEXICO NEAR 28N107.5W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15 KT IS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N115W. STRONG SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO S TO 21N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W WITH A RIDGING EXTENDING SW THROUGH 16N105W TO ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N115W AND CONTINUES W TO 13N130W. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES SEWD TO BELIZE. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT FROM 11N-20N E OF 130W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER SE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ...AND FROM SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE COST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WWD TO 105W. SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED IN SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT IS ERODING FROM W AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EWD INTO NW AND CENTRAL MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NRN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 11N E OF 102W. A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS SPREADING WWD OVER SRN COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF 3N E OF 98W AS WELL AS S OF 8N W OF 98W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 21N118W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW TO THE N OF 20N W OF 127W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SIMILAR TYPE CLOUDS ARE MOVING SWD N OF 25N E OF 127W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON...THEN WEAKEN SOME INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE SW PORTION. NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 60-90 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST ARE EXPECTED LAST DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. A BRIEF EPISODE OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE