000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162043
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MUCH OF THE 
SIGNIFICANT RELATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENSION 
OF THE WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS  AHEAD 
OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS 
WAVE HAS A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE TO THE E WITH A HINT 
OF BROAD TURNING IN THE MID-LEVELS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS MAINLY BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 92W- 
97W.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS 
LITTLE STRUCTURE OR SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON FORWARD CONTINUITY.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 8N100W 10N120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 120 NM WIDE FROM 95W TO 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION N OF 10N E OF 130W ANCHORED BY A 
HIGH CENTER NEAR 17N117W AND ANOTHER OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. 
A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. 
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS INTERRUPTING THE EXTENSIVE RIDGING IT IS 
NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. IN FACT...MOISTURE IS 
VERY LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EPAC. BESIDES FOR THE 
TYPICAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ITCZ...THE ONLY AREA OF ORGANIZED 
MOISTURE IS IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN 131W AND 137W N OF 
8N...BUT EVEN THIS IS PRIMARILY CIRRUS.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE  RIDGE 32N140W TO TO 22N117W IS 
PRODUCING 20 KT TRADES N OF 25N W OF 134W.

$$
FORECASTER ENVER