000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MUCH OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RELATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENSION 
OF THE WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS  
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 
82W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS 
WAVE HAS A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE TO THE E WITH A HINT 
OF BROAD TURNING IN THE MID-LEVELS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS MAINLY BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 92W- 
97W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE 
IS LITTLE STRUCTURE OR SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON FORWARD CONTINUITY.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N99W 11N111W 9N122W 9N140W. 
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION OUTLINED ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-137W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-123W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NW AWAY FROM THE 
DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 18N141W. A SPRAWLING UPPER 
RIDGE...LOCATED E OF THIS SYSTEM...COVERS THE REGION N OF 10N E 
OF 130W ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTER NEAR 17N117W AND ANOTHER OVER 
S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS INTERRUPTING THE 
EXTENSIVE RIDGING IT IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
MOISTURE. IN FACT...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION AS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENTRENCHED 
ACROSS THE EPAC. BESIDES FOR THE TYPICAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE 
ITCZ...THE ONLY AREA OF ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS IN A DIFFLUENT 
ZONE BETWEEN 131W AND 137W N OF 8N...BUT EVEN THIS IS PRIMARILY 
CIRRUS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE REGION 
EXETNDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 22N117W. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION. THESE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH 
PRES CENTER BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE WINDS OFF THE 
BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE PRES GRAD 
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND INVERTED TROUGHING 
ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND MEXICO.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI