000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160955 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 5N ALONG 79W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE WAVE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG FROM 5N-15N ALONG 97W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SEE BELOW UNDER ITCZ FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 11N96W 12N109W 9N120W 10N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N129W SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NW 20 KT NEAR 18N139W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 9N140W AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 22N137W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AS AS WELL AS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N. GOES-W SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED NWD FROM THE ITCZ TO 24N. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N151W MOVING W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER A LARGE DISTANCE TO THE NNE. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD FROM 36N130W TO 33N137W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING ON THE TROUGH NEAR 34N136W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N104W SW TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO ITS SE...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 21N106W AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO FAST UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING MEXICO...AND ALSO FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 121W-110W IN RESPONSE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER FAR SE MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 15N105W TO 12N118W. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES SEWD TO NRN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AIDING STRONG CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND NW HONDURAS... WHILE DIFFLUENT FLOW NOTED BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N139W AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W-134W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE IS BEING CHANNELED NNE TOWARDS MEXICO S OF LINE 20N105W TO 16N118W. THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 97W AND 111W OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATE TO STRONG ELY S OF 11N E OF 110W AND IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WWD FROM 4N-11N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA. A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS FUNNELING WSW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS PANAMA. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF 4N E OF 100W AND S OF 6N W OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE REGION EXETNDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 19N117W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW N OF 19N W OF 127W... AND ALSO N OF 23N BETWEEN 127W-116W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON...THEN WEAKEN SOME INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160955 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 5N ALONG 79W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE WAVE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG FROM 5N-15N ALONG 97W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SEE BELOW UNDER ITCZ FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 11N96W 12N109W 9N120W 10N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N129W SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NW 20 KT NEAR 18N139W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 9N140W AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 22N137W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AS AS WELL AS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N. GOES-W SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED NWD FROM THE ITCZ TO 24N. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N151W MOVING W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER A LARGE DISTANCE TO THE NNE. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD FROM 36N130W TO 33N137W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING ON THE TROUGH NEAR 34N136W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N104W SW TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO ITS SE...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 21N106W AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO FAST UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING MEXICO...AND ALSO FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 121W-110W IN RESPONSE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER FAR SE MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 15N105W TO 12N118W. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES SEWD TO NRN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AIDING STRONG CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND NW HONDURAS... WHILE DIFFLUENT FLOW NOTED BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N139W AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W-134W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE IS BEING CHANNELED NNE TOWARDS MEXICO S OF LINE 20N105W TO 16N118W. THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 97W AND 111W OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATE TO STRONG ELY S OF 11N E OF 110W AND IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WWD FROM 4N-11N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA. A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS FUNNELING WSW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS PANAMA. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF 4N E OF 100W AND S OF 6N W OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE REGION EXETNDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 19N117W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW N OF 19N W OF 127W... AND ALSO N OF 23N BETWEEN 127W-116W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON...THEN WEAKEN SOME INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE