000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15KT. 
ENHANCED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 95W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT  
12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N TO 14N WITH LITTLE CYCLONIC ROTATION
NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W HAS MOVED W ABOUT 10 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT 
IT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH...AND CONVECTION IS NOW SUPPRESSED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 120W BASED ON PAST MOTION.
A FEW TSTMS HAVE FLARED AGAIN FROM 7N TO 10N ALONG 120W AND IF 
THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS THE WAVE MAY BE PLACED BACK ON THE 
SURFACE ANALYSIS. 

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N81W 12N101W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 6N79W 12N96W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
11N100W 11N111W 9N120W AND WITHIN 60 NM 10N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY FILLING ALONG 32N101W 28N100W 
22N110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF AREA AT 24N150W WITH 
A RIDGE NE TO NEAR 31N139W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
22N117W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N129W INTO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 17N140W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 10N137W WITH A 
FEW TSTMS ENHANCED ALONG THE TROUGH AT 11N. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS ALONG 32N140W TO 18N108W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 109W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N87W WITH A RIDGE W TO 
NEAR 11N125W AND A RIDGE E TO COLOMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ ALONG POINTS 1N79W 8N106W 
3N117W 8N133W.
    
$$
FORECASTER NELSON