000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150941 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-15N ALONG 94W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-11N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N-14N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-12N. VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-14N ALONG 119W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ONLY DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITH THE WAVE IS THAT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N95W 10N106W 10N120W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92W AND 113W-118W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE S COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COAST. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING SW 15-20 KT NEAR 29N131.5W IS COUPLED IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT EXIST N OF 22N W OF 131W AND N OF 22N E OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. GOES-W SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N148W MOVING W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER TO A CREST NEAR 34N137W. A MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 17 KT IS NEAR 14N137W. IT IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 12N-22N W OF 128W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TO THE E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ IS BEING PULLED NWD WITH THE CIRCULATION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 131W-133W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE WRN PART OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS AS THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N104W AND CONTINUES SW TO 30N110W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 22N123W. TO ITS SE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 21N109W AS IT LIFTS NE. THE FLOW PATTER BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TO THE SE AND S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N81W EXTENDS ITS BROAD ENVELOPE OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WWD INTO THE E PACIFIC TO SE OF LINE FROM 21N106W SW TO 10N122W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W ROUGHLY ALONG 12N. ITCZ CONVECTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN 97W-102W AND E OF 90W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHER CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO IS ALSO ENHANCED AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED NNE TOWARDS MEXICO S OF 20N. MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS UNDER SIMILAR CLOUDINESS. THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 107W OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD WWD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS PANAMA. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF 6N E OF 132W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE REGION NEAR 35N145W 1028 MB HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 25N125W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 125W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW N OF 19N W OF 130W AND ALSO N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W-120W. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HRS...THEN BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES SWD INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS BEFORE WEAKENING. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE