000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 92W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 
ABOUT 12 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT 
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ E OF THE WAVE 
NEAR 10N91W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105.5W HAS MOVED W ABOUT 10 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...ROUGHLY FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W...BUT IS 
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 7N116W...BUT A COUPLE OF TSTMS 
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THE MOMENT.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...12N86W 12N95W 8N112W 10N118W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 8N96W 15N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM 10N90W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 
LINE 12N104W 8N113W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY FILLING ALONG 32N101W 24N114W 
THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N113W WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING SW THROUGH 10N120W LOSING IDENTITY NEAR THE EQUATOR 
AT 122W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W AND IS 
CURRENTLY NEAR 27N147W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 27N134W.
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N123W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
NOTED ALONG 30N129W 24N130W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
15N137W...EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEMS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N137W TO 
25N115W. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS COMBINE TO ADVECT DRY UPPER AIR 
OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N W OF 116W. 

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
12N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 
5N146W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...FROM THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE JUST 
TO THE N...ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 
145W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS COVERING THE AREA S OF 
10N W OF 131W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N81W AND ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS E OF 110W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 11N117W LIES OVER THE ITCZ AND 
ENHANCED CONVECTION BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N TO CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT SEEMS TO 
EVAPORATE ALONG 17N. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ... 
ROUGHLY S OF 6N E OF 132W. 
    
$$
FORECASTER NELSON