000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 91W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W ABOUT 
12 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N90W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104.5W HAS MOVED W ABOUT 10 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...ROUGHLY FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 99.5W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 8N113W...BUT ONLY A FEW TOWERING 
CUMULUS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AT THE MOMENT.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 12N86W 12N95W 8N112W 
10N118W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 7N80W 13N103W 8N107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY FILLING ALONG 32N101W 24N111W 
THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N112W WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING SW THROUGH 10N120W LOSING IDENTITY NEAR THE EQUATOR 
AT 124W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W AND IS 
CURRENTLY NEAR 26N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 26N130W.
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N120W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
NOTED ALONG 30N127W 22N130W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
14N138W...EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEMS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N137W TO 
25N115W. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS COMBINE TO ADVECT DRY UPPER AIR 
OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N W OF 113W. 

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
9N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 
4N144W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 134W AND 145W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS COVERING 
THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 132W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N87W AND ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS E OF 105W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 10N117W LIES OVER THE ITCZ AND IS 
ENHANCING IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 94W AND 104W. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND WILL REACH PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW HOURS. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF 
THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY 7N E OF 110W. 
    
$$
FORECASTER NELSON