000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 89W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE GUATEMALA SPREADING NEWD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 6N-12N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IR NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W-104W. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0040 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-105W. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-14N ALONG 114W IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 111W-114W AND S FROM THERE TO 5N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60-120 NM ELSEWHERE E OF THE WAVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N84W 10N95W 8N114W 9N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-115W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 137W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N86W TO 13N88W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 29N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 17N112W. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE DOMAIN N OF 11N W OF 128W...AND N OF 22N E OF 128W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS W OF THE AREA ALONG 146W WITH A CREST REACHING NW TO 23N147W. TO ITS E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROGRESSING WWD AT 15 KT IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBSIDENCE AREA NEAR 13N135W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA IN ABOUT 72 HRS WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS N SHIFTS SE. OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15 KT IS NEAR 18N108.5W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM NRN TEXAS SW TO SRN BAJA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 20N90W MOVING ESE 15-20 KT. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N97W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER ERN HONDURAS WITH A RIDGE SW TO 11N104W. DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AIDING STRONG CONVECTION OVER BELIZE...NE GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE IS STEERING STRONG CONVECTION OVER SRN NICARAGUA WWD INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 10N-13N E OF 88W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED WWD FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC AS WELL. OTHER UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS SEEN STREAMING NWD FROM THE ITCZ AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 99W-104W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF 6N E OF 125W...AND S OF 4N W OF 125W. AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING LOW...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...IS MARKED AS A 3-4 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 20N116W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW MOVING W 13 KT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N137W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N138W 1030 MB HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 26N119W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 120W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW N OF 17N W OF 130W AND ALSO N OF 21N E OF 130W TO COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SWD INTO THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE