000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE AREA N OF 7N ALONG 82W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE TO GULF OF PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 96W-101W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 2N-13N ALONG 110W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 8N85W 10N100W 9N110W 7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-125.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING W ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE AREA IS BEING DOMINATED BY TWO FEATURES. FIRST...A RATHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE DOMAIN N OF 19N W OF 125W...AND N OF 24N E OF 125W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA. AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS W OF THE AREA S OF 20N ALONG 145W...WHILE TO ITS E A TROUGH IS BEING CARVED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG 132W S OF 19N. HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE SPILLING SEWD OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE AND INTO THE FAR WRN PART OF THE AREA FROM 7N-19N W OF 135W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15 KT IS NEAR 15N131W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS N REFORMS FURTHER S NEAR 20N122W...AND THE RIDGE W OF THE AREA LIFTS NWD. OVER THE FAR ERN SECTION OF THE AREA...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SW DUE TO THE SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE NEW MEXICO SW THROUGH NW MEXICO AND TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N115W. THE TROUGH DIVIDES THE SUBSIDENCE AREA AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ITS S AND SE. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER MEXICO IS SPREADING WWD AND MERGING WITH THE MOISTURE AREA. THIS MOISTURE AREA IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING WWD WITH TIME. A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS ERN MEXICO FROM 23N102W N TO SE TEXAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N104W IS MOVING WSW 10-15 KT. SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH LESS IN COVERAGE THAN 24 HRS AGO...OVER SE MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS WITHIN 4 DEG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT S OF 7N E OF 130W. GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES E. AT THE SURFACE...REMNANT DISSIPATING LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS NEAR 19N115W MOVING NW ABOUT 8 KT. THE LOW IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...AND HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 112W-119W AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N140W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N119W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 121W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW FROM 16N-26N W OF 125W...AND ALSO N OF 22N BETWEEN 117W-125W. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE