000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS NEAR 18.1N 113.6W 1005 MB MOVING W NW AT 8 KT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER NIGHT WITH LIGHTING DATA SUGGESTING A SINGLE TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WED. SEE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO ALONG 78.5W. THIS WLY MOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS FLARED JUST S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AROUND SUNRISE BUT IS WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN80W AND 83W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY OVER A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 13N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FLARED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE WAVE AT 15N BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR 11N103W SUGGESTING THE WAVE MAY BE TILTED NNW TO SSE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N78W 12N94W 6N135W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N79W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N91W 9N100W 9N110W AND WITHIN 15 NM OF LINE 7N120W 8N129W 6N134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N110W 20N120W TO A BASE NEAR 1N126W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 29N132W. THESE SYSTEMS COMBINE TO ADVECT DRY UPPER AIR OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED W TO NEAR 9N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG 16N140W 7N132W 4N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF AREA HAS SPILLED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A CREST NEAR 13N121W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST CONVECTIVE BURST THAT OCCURRED NEAR THE DEPRESSION LAST NIGHT. RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS N OVER THE S CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION ALONG A 180 NM WIDE PLUME CENTERED ALONG 19N114W 26N107W TO BEYOND 32N101W THEN FANNING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC NEAR BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE EXTREME NW BAHAMAS THROUGH A CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW INTO THE E PAC THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONE NEAR 14N100W TO A BASE AT 4N102W. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DRY AIR IS ADVECTED S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE E PAC TO NEAR 13N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 95W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES NEAR 34N140W RIDGES SE TO NEAR 26N114W. $$ FORECASTER NELSON