000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E NEAR 17.7N 112.8W AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION BEING EXHIBITED BY THIS SMALL SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE SYSTEM FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 112W-114W. CIRRUS CLOUDS FANNING OUT TO WITHIN 360 NM TO THE N AND W OF DEPRESSION INDICATE ONGOING OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTING ABOVE THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS NOTED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD TO ITS W. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE DEPRESSION WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WED AND DISSIPATING LATE FRI NIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N91W 13N94.5W. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 2N-13N ALONG 106W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N85W 9N95W 11N105W 6N115W 8N1127W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY BASICALLY TWO FEATURES. FIRST...A RATHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR S AS 9N...W TO BEYOND THE DISCUSSION AND E TO ABOUT 113W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS KEEPING ITCZ CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM BETWEEN 122W-135W. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT S OF 17N W OF 133W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS RIDING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARE TRANSPORTING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND NOW REACHES TO 135W. TO THE E OF 113W...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SW DUE TO THE SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA SW THROUGH N BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES SW TO 22N117W WHERE IT BECOMES MORE LIKE A SHEAR AXIS SW TO NEAR 12N127W. THE TROUGH IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE SUBSIDENCE AREA AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR DESCRIBED ABOVE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. THIS INCLUDES UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SW TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION-THREE-E. THE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHEAR AXIS KEEPING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER CONFINED TO AN AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 25N109W TO 20.5N115.5W TO 10N121W. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION THAT EARLIER OCCURRED OVER MEXICO IS SPREADING WWD AND MERGING WITH THE MOISTURE AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING WSW OVER MEXICO NEAR 17N99W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W AND 98W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE OVER SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRECEDING THE CIRCULATION 120 NM TO ITS W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT S OF 7N. GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER SLOWLY MOVES E. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N118W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 121W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW FROM 15N-25N W OF 119W. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE