000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W HAS 
BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 15N110W 1006 MB. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE HAS SUPPORTED PERSISTENT CONVECTION THROUGHOUT SUN 
NIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS FORMED. CURRENTLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS 
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
TONIGHT INTO TUE. THEREAFTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES 
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES..

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOUR. 
CURRENTLY OVER A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE N OF THE 
AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 12N.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N85W 13N101W 7N117W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N78W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N88W 
7N96W AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N103W 9N108W 7N119W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N114W 20N118W 10N124W 
ADVECTING DRY AIR UPPER AIR OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W 
OF THE TROUGH AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSES ITCZ CONVECTION TO A 
THIN LINE BETWEEN 123W AND 134W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
NOTED NEAR 31N135W IS NOW ADVECTING SOME UPPER MOISTURE 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 116W AND 133W. ANOTHER
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 13N133W WITH UPPER DRY AIR 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W AND 143W.  
 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NE OLD MEXICO NEAR 26N100W HAS A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A CREST NEAR 
13N116W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
CONVECTIVE BURST THAT OCCURRED NEAR THE DEPRESSION LAST NIGHT. 
RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS N OVER THE S CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND 
ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION ALONG A 240 NM WIDE 
PLUME CENTERED ALONG 17N112W 24N108W TO BEYOND 32N103W THEN 
FANNING OUT OVER W TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.  

A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS FROM THE 
ATLC NEAR BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW INTO THE E PAC TO A 
BASE AT 6N95W. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DRY AIR IS ADVECTED S OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE E PAC NEAR 13N97W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 97W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 
14N91W AND MORE IMPRESSIVELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
    
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES NEAR 33N141W 1027 MB RIDGES 
SE TO NEAR 24N115W. 

$$
FORECASTER NELSON