000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 91W TO 97W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
ALSO SEEN BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1006 MB 
LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS SOME SIGN OF BANDING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW/WAVE. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO 
OCCUR.   

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N85W 9N95W 8N115W 9N129W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF 
AXIS E OF 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
30N118W TO 22N120W THEN SW TO 24N132W. A JET STREAM BRANCH OF 70 
KT IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ENTERS THE BAJA PENINSULA 
NEAR 27N113W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N102W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NE TO THE BIG 
BEND OF TEXAS AND SE TO THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE 
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING 
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FAVORING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS S OF TROUGH NEAR 12N130W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 22N136W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
ENTERING THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N143W 
DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING 
A SWATH OF 20 T0 25 KT NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT ACROSS 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. 

$$
FORECASTER GR