000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 94W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 95W-102W
AND N OF 12N BETWEEN 92W-106W.
 
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 104W MOVING W 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW 
PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS 
LIMITED...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N78W 12N102W 9N110W 8N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 3N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W AND WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 07W TO 112W..

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST 
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES TO 32N119W THEN SW TO 23N133W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 112W EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF THE TROUGH TO 130W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF TROUGH NEAR 12N128W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 22N138W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO 
NEAR 18N100W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NE TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS 
AND SE TO THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM 
ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W.

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 112W. THIS 
FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE N TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 12N W OF 115W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED INT THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N136W TO 6N140W.
 
$$
FORECASTER DGS