000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SHOWER ACTIVITY 
REMAINS LIMITED...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0100 UTC SHOWED 
EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 
103W AND 107W. FARTHER SOUTH THE CONVECTION IS MIXED WITH THE 
ITCZ.  

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N80W 10N90W 10N110W 9N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W TO 98W...AND WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W TO 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N120W THEN SW TO 
24N1350W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR 
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 22N W OF 110W EXCEPT FOR A THIN...90 NM...BAND OF HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N116W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SOUTH OF 
TROUGH NEAR 12N125W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO 
ACROSS GUATEMALA AND BELIZE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM 
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...WHERE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A 
COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ONE OF THEM 
IS AFFECTING THE AREA OF ACAPULCO WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE 
SECOND ONE IS OVER THE ISTHMUS/GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 112W. THIS 
FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE N TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND 125W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 115W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 12N136W TO 7N139W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ.  

 
$$
FORECASTER GR