000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 5N TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ IN AREA FROM 9N TO 
16W BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.  

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N80W 8N95W 11N115W 11N130W 
7N140W. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 80 TO 100 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL 
WATERS. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N126W 
THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  
THE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N WATERS OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES EWD APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
SOUTH OF TROUGH...AN ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N125W. BETWEEN THESE 
TWO FEATURE THERE IS A BAND OF STRONG WLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A JET STREAM BRANCH. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN ABUNDANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR 
COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE 
IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO/GUATEMALA WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N110W. A WEAK MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N133W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA N 
OF 17N WEST OF 118W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING N TO NW WINDS OF 
20 KT N OF 24N BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 122W WHICH IS 
CONFIRMED BY 0600 UTC SURFACE DATA AND A 0310Z QUIKSCAT PASS.  
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT MOVING TO THE SW WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS W OF 125W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N130W TO 7N134W. 
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS 
DIMINISHED...AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W AND EXTENDS FROM 4N TO 14N. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 9N TO 15W BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. COMPUTER MODELS 
ANTICIPATES THAT A SFC LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS SAT... 
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SE AND S OF THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W AND EXTENDS FROM 2N TO COSTA RICA. 
BOTH TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
 
$$
FORECASTER GR