000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT MAINLY W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 8N TO 
15N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
12N99W AND SLOWLY MOVING W. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS WHICH 
INCLUDES THE GFS/UKMET ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW 
PRESSURE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT CLOSE 
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N82W 11N93W 10N99W 
14N110W 13N115W 11N120W 12N128W 10N132W 8N135W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W 
AND 134W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 
106W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW SECTION...WHILE A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 26N128W. THE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOSTLY 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN 
SECTION OF THE AREA...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN 
STREAMING INTO THE FAR NW SECTOR OF THE AREA. THIS IS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SE INTO THE 
WATERS. A ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO/GUATEMALA 
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N110W. ANOTHER  
SMALLER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW SECTION OF THE AREA 
NEAR 8N138W. A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N134W 
IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA W 
OF 112W...AND N OF ROUGHLY 17N. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING N TO 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 120W 
WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A 1310Z QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH COVERED THE 
AREA MAINLY E OF 121W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT 
MOVING TO THE SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS W OF 
125W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 130W FROM 8N TO 17N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 13N WITH 
CONVECTION INCREASING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS ARE NE TO 20 
KT MAINLY W OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS 
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE NEAR 15N109W AND SHOULD MOVE W AT 10 KT. 
THERE IS NO CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE LOW CENTER. 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W AND EXTENDS FROM 5N TO 15N. IT 
SHOULD MOVE W AT 10 KT. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER 
THE ENTIRE AREA LIES ROUGHLY 480 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF 10N...AND 
N OF THE ITCZ. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W AND EXTENDS 
FROM 2N TO 10N. IT IS MOVING W INTO THE WATERS WITH CONVECTION 
MAINLY E OF THE AXIS AT THIS TIME. 

$$
FORECASTER ROWLAND