000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 6N 
TO 9N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. BOTH IR AND NIGHT TIME CHANNEL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N98W MOVING W 5-10 KT. COMPUTER 
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD UNDERGO 
CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 11N100W 13N111W 10N124W 9N132W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
80 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-135W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 25N120W...WHILE
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 25N115W. MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THIS PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... 
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W PORTION WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 
FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS SEEN STREAMING N TO THE E OF A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED W OF THE REGION. 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO/GUATEMALA 
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N112W. ANOTHER  
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 11N138W. A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW 
ABOUT 10 KT IS NEAR 13N132W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N WEST OF 115W. 
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING NLY WINDS OF 20KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 122W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING 
SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN W OF 125W...UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W FROM 
6N-17N. THE TROUGH IS DRAWING THE ITCZ NWD BETWEEN 127W-130W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 9N130W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FOUND WEST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS.


$$
FORECASTER GR