000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...AND REMAINING CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N95W 12N105W 10N121W 11N129W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-135W...AND WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 25N120W...WHILE
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 25N115W TO 22N121W. MOSTLY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W PORTION WHERE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS SEEN STREAMING N TO 
THE E OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE REGION 
NEAR 19N150W. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO 
THE AREA NEAR 32N132W...AND STRETCHES SE TO 21N118W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE SEEN W OF 130W...AND ALSO S OF 24N E OF 130W.

S OF 20N...

A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT IS 
NEAR 14N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE IS ALONG 
129W FROM 6N-17N. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 
12N129W. THE TROUGH IS PINCHING THE ITCZ NWD BETWEEN 127W-130W. 
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS SEEN FROM 11N-20N W OF 122W. MOSTLY 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING W OF 115W WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE 
AT ALL LEVELS IS SE OF LINE FROM MANZANILLO TO 10N115W S TO 7N.

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER GUATEMALA IS DRIVING
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS AREA AS SEEN IN THE FAST WWD
MOTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 95W-103W ARE 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SEEN HERE. BOTH 
IR AND NIGHT TIME CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A MID 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12.5N99W MOVING W 5-10 KT.

OVERCAST TOP BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM 16N-20N W OF 113W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-16N E OF 108W.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE