000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N93W 12N92W.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N92W 12N105W 10N121W 11N128W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W-132W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 
135W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 25N120W. TO THE S 
OF THIS RIDGE...A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS 
NEAR 19N128.5W WITH A RIDGE ALONG 19N122W TO 21N116W TO ANOTHER 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22N112W. A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 25N115W TO 22N121W. MOSTLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W PORTION WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS SEEN STREAMING N TO THE E OF A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE REGION NEAR 
19N149W. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE 
AREA NEAR 32N132W...AND STRETCHES SE TO 21N115W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE SEEN W OF 130W AND ALSO S OF 25N E OF 130W.

S OF 20N...

A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT IS
NEAR 13.5N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE IS ALONG 
129W FROM 6N-18N. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
11N129W. THE TROUGH IS PINCHING THE ITCZ NWD BETWEEN 127W-130W.
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS SEEN FROM 11N-20N W OF 122W. MOSTLY 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING W OF 115W WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE 
AT ALL LEVELS IS SE OF LINE FROM MANZANILLO TO 10N115W S TO 7N.

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER GUATEMALA IS DRIVING
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS AREA AS SEEN IN THE FAST WWD
MOTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONFINED FROM 10N-16N 
BETWEEN 95W-101W ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS 
CLOUDINESS SEEN HERE.

OVERCAST TOP BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM 16N-20N W OF 113W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-16N E OF 108W.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE