000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N80W 13N105W 8N120W 7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 
114W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN 80 TO 100 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 50 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
129W AND 132W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N127W.

DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF 
THE REGION FROM 30N136W TO 26N122W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 23N127W. A VERY LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO/GUATEMALA WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N105W. DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS THAT IS AFFECTING PARTS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 8N140W TO 17N112W 
ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

LOW LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS NEAR 
11N127W. CONVECTION FLARED UP AGAIN TONIGHT WEST OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY REMAINS IN THE 
SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT IN THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
NOT ANTICIPATED. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH LIES ALONG 127W FROM 
7N TO 15N. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WITH SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND NE WINDS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING 
THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF MAINLY LOW 
CLOUDS. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE. THE GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS 
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
FORECASTER GR