000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS 10N86W 12N95W 10N110W 
10N126W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...WITHIN 240 NMI N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.

DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF 
THE REGION FROM 30N134W TO 27N121W TO 29N114W.  A WEAK TUTT AXIS 
IS SEEN FROM 26N112W TO 23N127W.  A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N105W.  ANOTHER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ LIES ALONG 9N140W TO 17N115W.

LOW LEVELS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS ALONG 127W 
FROM 7N TO 15N.  CONVECTION FLARED UP ALONG THE TROUGH EARLIER 
TODAY BUT IS CURRENTLY WAINING.  HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL 
VORTICITY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING 
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NONE OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY 
BECAUSE OF DRY STABLE AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM.  VERTICAL SHEAR 
REMAINS QUITE LOW...SO THAT HAS NOT BEEN INHIBITING 
REDEVELOPMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS 
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA