000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...9N85W 12N100W 8N115W 10N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N 
W OF 136W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE LOW MENTIONED BELOW. 

DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA TO 20N119W MOVING E 20 KT. 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N130W DRIFTING E. AN UPPER LOW W OF AREA IS 
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 135W FROM 15N TO 24N. 

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO TO BELIZE. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 105W N OF 15N. THIS FEATURE IS 
GENERATING NW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
31N127W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25N136W. A 100 NM WIDE BAND OF 
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAS SEAS TO 
8 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

A 1012 MB LOW CENTER...REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS NEAR 10.3N124.2W 
MOVING W 10 KT. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AND IR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND 
THE LOW IS PRODUCING A BAND OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT IN 
AN AREA FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF 120W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N124W TO 6N124W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

$$
FORECASTER GR