000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 11N92W 9N110W 11N119W 8N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-87W 
AND WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED 
WITH BROAD TROUGHING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 118W-123W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 124W-129W. 

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOSTLY N OF THE 
AREA...EXTENDING SE FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MOST OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS AND A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHIP OBS AGREE THAT A SMALL 
AREA OF 20 KT PREFRONTAL SW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA NW 
OF A LINE 30N136W 27N140W.  THIS RELAXES STEADILY THROUGH MON AS 
THE ENERGY LIFTS N. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N127W IS EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT S THROUGH MON. THIS HIGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE BROAD 
TROUGHING FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 118W-130W TO PRODUCE MODERATE NE 
WINDS AND WIND WAVES. THE TROUGHING SEEMS TO HAVE A COUPLE OF 
LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA...NEAR 11N122W AND ALSO NEAR 
10N126W. THE FORMER IS THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...AND SIGNIFICANT 
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
APPEARS UNLIKELY. WINDS/SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE 
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION 
ABOVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N 
OF 16N E OF 130W. 

ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST W OF BAJA. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES S OF 
18N W OF 110W. W/SW FLOW ON THE N PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE ITCZ E/NE. BROAD ELY FLOW IS 
OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 100W...SPREADING 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ...SOUTH AMERICA...AND CARIBBEAN W TO 90W. 


$$
WILLIS