000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA NEAR 14.8N 92.4W AT 1500 UTC JUN 02 
MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
OF CENTER AND CONTINUING TO SPREAD NE OVER EXTREME SE OLD MEXICO 
AND SW GUATEMALA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 FOR MORE DETAILS. 

REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS NEAR 12N122W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED A CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY  
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N98W 7N110W 12N122W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
180 NM OF 10N100W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 9N115W 
10N122W.

DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISSECTS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N121W 24N124W 
20N140W...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 28N118W 22N127W 20N140W. 

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 50N152W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE TOWARDS THE NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT... 
ACCOMPANIED BY A 20 KT WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-1O FT IN NW 
SWELL... INTO THE AREA ON SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE 
NW PORTION MON...AND LOSING IDENTITY MON NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N118W...JUST NE OF 
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...ENHANCING CONVECTION 
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO A CREST NEAR 8N134W WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT 
OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE TO NEAR 18N122W. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N106W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N112W. AN AREA OF DRY UPPER 
AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N88W 
15N115W. YET ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM 
BARBARA. A TROPICAL UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 9N145W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING NE TO 12N98W. A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WERE ENHANCED 
UNDER THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
BARBARA...AND FROM THESE ENHANCED CELLS...IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N95W 3N115W.
     
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER S AMERICA RIDGES NW OVER THE PAC 
WATERS S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION 
OVER COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE E PAC ITCZ IS ADVECTED S OF THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 90W. 
  
$$
NELSON