000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BARBARA HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND IS HEADING 
TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. T.S. BARBARA WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 13.0N 94.5W AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING E AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 91W-97W...AND IS GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED THIS 
MORNING AS BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N100W 8N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
99W-110W...AND WITHIN 150NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-132W. 

DISCUSSION...

A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN...IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12.5N118W. A CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FLARED UP MAINLY 
SE OF THE CENTER...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 117W-120W. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 
FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 300 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES. A WEAK 
RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE NE PAC W OF 
110W...KEEPING TRADES LIGHT TO MODERATE. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD 
SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS...THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF FOR EXPOSED BEACHES OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED E OF BARBARA...FROM FAR SE MEXICO THROUGH COSTA 
RICA...AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL MIXES WITH SHORTER PERIOD W/SW 
SWELL FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF IS W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
BAJA...EXTENDING S ALONG 129W N OF 20W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
THIS FEATURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SW OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS 
SPREADING A SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE NE THROUGH NRN BAJA AND INTO 
THE SW U.S. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER BARBARA TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. PREDOMINANT UPPER NELY FLOW IS E OF 
95W...SPREADING MOISTURE OVER ITCZ CONVECTION AND FROM THE CARIB 
SW THROUGH THE AREA. 


$$
WILLIS