000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E AT 13.2N 111.2W AT 2100 UTC WITH PRES 
OF 1007 MB MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 2 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. 
FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR 
SUPPORT THE FORECAST FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL 
STORM...BUT WITH CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AT THE 
MOMENT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 14N91W 10N110W 7N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 13N92W 7N112W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N125W AND 30 NM 
OF 8N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N116W. ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 112W WITH THE RIDGE CRESTING ALONG 
POINTS 24N140W 30N125W 27N110W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OBSERVED NW 
OF THE RIDGE ALONG 32N127W 27N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED 
NW OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N133W 
15N140W. THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
129W AND 139W BUT ENHANCES ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 127W AND 
100W. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND OVER THE E PAC 
ALONG 21N100W 13N105W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N103W 
WITH A RIDGE E TO NEAR 12N88W ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 12N97W.
THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES 
IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB AT 32N143W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
TO NEAR 24N115W. 

$$
NELSON