000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271631
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E AT 12.9N 111.2W AT 1500 UTC WITH PRES 
OF 1006 MB MOVING W AT 3 KT.  STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
T. D. ONE-E FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.  INCREASED UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEXT 48 HRS AS SYSTEM DRIFT W.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 14N90W 9N100W 11N112W 7N123W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 122W AND 126W.  

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W BRINGS 85 KT 
JET CORE INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC.  OTHERWISE...A STRING OF THREE 
ANTICYCLONES FORM ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS REMAINDER 
OF BASIN.  FIRST CENTER AT 14N126W KEEPS AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY W 
OF 130W.  SECOND CENTER AT 14N115W PROVIDES GOOD OUTFLOW TO  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ALLOWING IT TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND 
LIKELY INTENSIFY NEXT INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF E PACIFIC 
SEASON.  THIRD CENTER AT 10N103W PROVIDES SIMILAR FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS TO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COMPETING WITH T.D. ONE-E FOR 
BETTER CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY.  PREVIOUS RUNS FROM NOGAPS AND 
GFS HAD LEANED TOWARDS THE LATTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW PRES 
WHICH IS NOW T.D. ONE-E PULLED THE HARDEST TO WIN COMPETITION. 

ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY DRY N OF 18N WITH ITCZ CONVECTION 
ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF 120W ALONG 
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 32N145W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
20N110W HELPING CURTAIL CONVECTION N OF 18N.  LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES REMAIN THROUGHOUT MOST E PAC.  

$$
WALLY BARNES