000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CONVECTION AROUND QUASI STATIONARY LOW PRES AT 12N110W 1008 MB 
IS PULSING UP AGAIN AFTER WEAKENING EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS 
CONVECTION IS FLARING AT THE EXPENSE OF ANOTHER CLUSTER NEAR 
10N108W...WHICH IS UNDERGOING A DIURNAL MINIMUM AT PRESENT. 
WHILE BOTH SYSTEMS RETAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WESTERNMOST APPEARS MORE LOW LEVEL PER 
MORNING MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE EASTERN SYSTEM MAY BE MORE MID 
LEVEL AT THIS STAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT 
OFFERS LITTLE SHEAR...DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND REMAINS 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH EITHER OR BOTH SYSTEMS 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...13N88W 10N95W 13N110W 
7N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W TEXAS 
THROUGH SRN BAJA PENINSULA TO NEAR 19N110W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR IS ADVECTING DOWN THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH. S OF THE 
TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 15N IS 
PROVIDING DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND IS ENHANCING 
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...SHIP 
AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY 
FLOW S OF THE ITCZ. 

FURTHER W...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO NRN BAJA FROM 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N129W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
30N125W TO STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR 21N145W. AT THE 
SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N145W. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SOME TRADE WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KT N OF 20N 
W OF 130W...BUT WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE N OF 
THE ITCZ. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN