000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261627
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
STATIONARY LOW PRES AT 12N110W 1011 MB LOSING CONVECTION 
QUICKLY.  WARMING TOPS IN SPITE OF MAXIMUM RADIATIVE COOLING 
TIMING INDICATES LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT.  AREA RAPIDLY BEING 
CAUGHT UP BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER JUST E-SE...NEAR 10N107W...AND 
POSSIBLE MERGING EXPECTED.  APPROACHING CLUSTER HAS FAVORABLE 
SUPPORT ALOFT AS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION.  CLUSTER IS GROWING IN SIZE...HEIGHT AND VORTICITY.  
GFS AND NOGAPS MAKE APPROACHING CLUSTER THEIR MAIN CENTER FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GROWTH.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM ITS CENTER WITH VERY COLD MERITS CLOSE 
MONITORING AS DEVELOPMENT INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED WITHIN 
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  WWD MOTION EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...13N88W  8N105W  7N122W  
5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 
89W TO 110W AND WITHIN 150 NM FROM 110W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 11N127W MAINTAINS LARGE FLOW OVER ENTIRE 
E PAC W OF 112W.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 14N100W MAINTAINS 
SIMILAR FLOW E OF 105W WITH SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC WINDS CAUGHT 
IN THE MIDDLE.  DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT NEAR 107W HELPING ABOVE 
MENTIONED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY WHILE SURFACE LOW 
PRES PREVIOUSLY MONITORED HAS BEEN LOSING IDENTITY.  

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N109W TO 17N115W KEEPS VERY 
DRY AIR MASS N OF 18N E OF 113W.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 32N145W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
15N115W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES N OF 10N W OF 125W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES