000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240316 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAY 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 13N87W 12N106W 10N121W 8N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 99W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W-130W...AND BETWEEN 132W-136W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N138W CONTROLS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 13N W OF 110W. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES FOR THE AREA...MOSTLY 20 KT OR BELOW. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ACROSS THE BOARD IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS. TRADES WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH WEAKENS A COUPLE MB. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 127W. CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE ITCZ DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HAVE OUTLINED AN AREA OF S WINDS IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W-105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 24/0000 UTC SUGGESTS THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE 20 KT RANGE SW OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA. HAVE GONE WITH A BROADBRUSH APPROACH TO 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IN THE REGION. FAIRLY DRY/STABLE AIR NOTED IN WV IMAGERY N OF 20N W OF MEXICO WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER CONFLUENCE. SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVECTING A BAND OF ITCZ MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE REGION FROM 5N-20N W OF 130W. MID TO UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EPAC WATERS SW OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 13N111W. THIS HAS RIDGING EXTENDING E THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N. $$ MW