000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N87W 12N105W 
9N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 
82W-102W...AND FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 102W-115W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY 
IS WITHIN 150NM N AND 30NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N138W CONTROLS THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 12N W OF 110W. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES FOR THE 
AREA...MOSTLY 20 KT OR BELOW. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 FT 
RANGE ACROSS THE BOARD IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES AND LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 125W. SKIES ARE RATHER 
CLEAR N OF 20N W OF 125W. CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE 
ITCZ DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HAVE OUTLINED AN 
AREA OF S WINDS IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST S OF 7N BETWEEN 
80W-100W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH GENERALLY LEANS 
TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE...BUT OVERALL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN 
THIS AT THE MOMENT.  

FAIRLY DRY/STABLE AIR NOTED IN WV IMAGERY N OF 20N W OF MEXICO 
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER CONFLUENCE. MID TO UPPER RIDGING 
DOMINATES THE EPAC WATERS SW OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 12N114W. THIS HAS 
RIDGING EXTENDING E THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N. 


$$
MW