000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...9N83W 9N103W 8N108W 
8N133W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 120 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 112W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 900 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 104W TO 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS ON W 
SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW TO 23N124W THEN W TO  
29N140W.  ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY WITHIN 180 NM SE OF LONGWAVE 
TROUGH AXIS AND REMAINING BASIN N OF AXIS. 

TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE AT 9N128W AND ANOTHER AT 15N92W
...FORM ELONGATED RIDGE WITH 95 KT JET CORE ADVECTING PLENTY OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO SRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 87W AND NEAR 125W ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BUT WITH NO NOTICEABLE ORGANIZATION.
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA CARIBBEAN 
COAST UNDER LARGE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EXPANDS INTO E PAC BASIN 
E OF 90W.  WHILE NO ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED...WEATHER HAS 
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH LAST 48 HRS AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
ITCZ HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT E OF 85W AND W OF OF 130W.  CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
MAINTAIN HEALTHY FLOW OF MOISTURE ALONG ENTIRE ITCZ TRACK.  

STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 33N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 15N100W MAINTAINING STEADY NE TRADES W OF 130W.  TRADES 
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE WITHIN 48 HRS.    

$$
WALLY BARNES