000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG  9N79W  9N93W  6N103W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240NM OF AXIS 
E OF 114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60NM OF AXIS W OF 114W.  

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 31N114W HAS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW TO 25N130W THEN W TO 25N140W.  VERY DRY 
AIR MASS SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 360 NM S AND E OF AXIS 
WHILE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES AREA N OF TROUGH AXIS.  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE APPROACHING NRN EDGE OF REGION E OF 126W.   

UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER 15N96W BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MEXICO 
WHILE PROVIDING ITCZ WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW TO PROMOTE 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION E OF 114W AND INTO WRN CARIBBEAN AND 
SOUTH AMERICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
STATIONARY 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRES AT 34N140W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE 
TO 15N115W PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N W 
OF 125W.  GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT E OF HIGH PRES W OF BAJA AS 
RIDGING INTERACTS WITH INVERTED TROUGH ALONG MEXICO MOUNTAIN 
CHAIN PRODUCING AREA OF 20KT N WINDS AND 10 FT SHORT PERIOD N 
SWELL N OF 23N E OF 125W.  BOTH TRADES AND N WINDS ONLY EXPECTED 
TO RELAX NEXT 48 HRS. 

WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STILL REMAIN STRONG WITH DIURNAL 
VARIATIONS THROUGHOUT NEXT 48 HRS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES