000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...8N78W 8N105W 10N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 
8.3N96.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINTS 9.6N103W AND 7.1N107.4W.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NORTH OF 25N EAST 
OF 120W. LITTLE WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NEARLY THE SAME AREA THROUGH 36 
HOURS THEN MOVE EAST.

WEAK MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 30N110W 
20N120W 16N140W.  THIS SYSTEM IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO WITHIN 450 NM SOUTH OF 
THE LINE. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ 
FROM 114W TO 132W.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 113W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA AND 
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL