000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161019
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N80W  8N92W  10N115W  6N130W  6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 84W AND FROM 
99W TO 115W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK TROUGH 32N119W 20N130W 9N127W HAS VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG 
AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS N OF 20N.  LOTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTED 
NE BY 65 KT JET CORE SE OF AXIS.  MOISTURE ENTERING SRN HALF OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  LARGE ANTICYCLONE 
WITH CENTER AT 9N85W CONTROLS AIR FLOW OVER REST OF E PAC.  AREA 
OF DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH PRODUCING LARGE CLUSTER 
OF CONVECTION NEAR 10N114W WITH DEBRIS FLOWING NE INTO SRN 
MEXICO.  E PAC REMAINS VERY DRY S OF 5N E OF 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 32N132W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N110W 
AND DRIFTING S.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADES FROM 10N TO 20N 
W OF 125W SHOULD HOLD THEIR OWN THROUGHOUT PERIOD.  SURGE OF NLY 
WIND ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA HAS ENCROACHING N SWELLS ALONG 
BAJA COAST...AND STRONG WIND CROSSING ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SHOULD REMAIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES