000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 7N106W 8N113W 8N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION 120 NM WIDE 86W TO 100W SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG 240 NM WIDE 112W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WEST OF 130W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
32N122W TO 26N121W MOVING NE 20 TO 25 KT.  DIFFLUENT FLOW 
BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND WEAK RIDGING FURTHER S IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT THE CONVECTION WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W-121W. UPPER SW 
FLOW IS SPREADING THE UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 
CENTRAL MEXICO. RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES THE UPPER PATTERN IN 
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA.

LOW LEVELS...

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER HAS A RIDGE TO 13N102W. 

OCEAN FEATURES...
FROM 9N TO 17N W OF 125W NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W N WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT IN N SWELL.
WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16N94.5W 13N96W 12N98W 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 
10 FT. 

$$
TORRES