000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N90W 8N110W 
7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA...WITHIN 300NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 79W. SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30NM N AND 90NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W-91W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM N AND 180NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W-111W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED 
STRONG IS WITHIN 210NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
114W-126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N132W HAS RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 105W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FOR THE AREA...STRONGEST FROM 9N-17N W 
OF 125W...BUT ONLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TOPPING OFF 
AROUND 8 FT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OFF THE NORTH 
BAJA COAST THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF 
MODERATE NLY WINDS AND STEEP NLY SWELL N OF 26N BETWEEN 
118W-128W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE OTHER STORY AT THE SFC IS THE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A THIN LINE OF 
LOWER TO MID CLOUDS S OF MAINLAND MEXICO...WHERE SPEED 
CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON THE PERIMETER OF THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND 
SWATH. AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20-30 
KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THIS WILL PULSE EARLY MORNING TO MID 
AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN PORTION 
OF THE AREA MAINLY S OF 25W ALONG 132W. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
AXIS IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAJA. 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG 125W N OF 25N. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND WEAK RIDGING FURTHER S IS HELPING 
TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W-121W. UPPER 
SW FLOW IS SPREADING THE UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS ACTIVITY 
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES THE UPPER 
PATTERN IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
WILLIS