000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N81W 10N95W 10N110W 7N125W 5N140W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 106W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N 
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PRESSING E ABOVE THE OPEN PACIFIC WITH 
THE FLOW. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ALOFT LIES E OF 115W IN A WEAK 
CONFLUENT ZONE TO THE SSW OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. 
AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 
34N134W. THIS MODEST RIDGE IS ONLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE 
NE TRADES ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NLY WINDS LIE 
ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. BOTH OF 
THESE AREAS OF WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SIMILAR OR WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICS...    
TWO BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGES COVER MUCH OF THE TROPICS. ONE UPPER 
HIGH IS CENTERED WELL W OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING EWD 
TO 122W. THE OTHER RIDGE IS LOCATED E OF THE REGION IN THE SW 
CARIB WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING W TO ABOUT 110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND ADVECTING DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
NEWD TO S MEXICO. 

AN 1148 UTC QSCAT PASS SHOWED GENERALLY 20-25 KT NLY WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PASS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z 
PASS YESTERDAY. MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK GAP WIND EVENT PULSING UP 
AND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO MADE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.  

$$
CANGIALOSI