000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 11N90W 8N103W 9N113W 6N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N92W 7N94W 8N99W AND 11N106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 25 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 11N108W TO 9N117W TO 9N125W AND FROM 7N127W TO 6N136W.

OTHER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 2N79W AND NEAR THE S COAST OF PANAMA AT 8N82W. OTHER MODERATE 
TO STRONG ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE SE COAST OF EL SALVADOR 
AT 13N88W AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 13N91W. ONE 
ISOLATED STRONG CELL ON THE NW COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 
14.5N91.5W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND OVER SRN CA 
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH HAS PHASED IN WITH A WEAKER TROUGH JUST W OF 
THE BAJA COAST IN THE MID LEVELS. THE WEAKER TROUGH HAS MIGRATED 
ENE FROM THE SRN PORTION OF THE N PACIFIC IN A MODERATE SRN 
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. A LARGE DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED E 
TO NEAR 150W OVER THE N PACIFIC AND IS PUMPING A RIDGE ALONG 
130W MOSTLY N OF THE REGION. OVER OUR REGION S OF 20N A FLAT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WITH RIDGING NWD ALONG 105W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS ONCE AGAIN GAINED IT'S OLD 
STRENGTH BACK AND NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN 
10N AND 20N W OF 125W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NWLY 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT. 
SSMI SHOWS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS..MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 
MODEL FOR 06Z. WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC ARE MOSTLY 15 KT 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT..NO PASS FROM SSMI. THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY 
10 KT. OTHER GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES INLAND OVER 
SRN NEVADA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH MOVES SLOWLY E  
OVER BAJA. A NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP W OF 140W N OF 35N 
AND WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW THE FIRST SHORTWAVE INLAND N OF OUR 
REGION. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER OF THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS S TO NEAR 33N133W. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT 
THE SAME BUT WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE SOME AS THE 
RIDGE AXIS BACKS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES BETWEEN 110W AND 120W 
BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THE TROUGHS ARE BLOCKED BY A PERSISTENT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT BULGES NWD ALONG 104W. THE SRN BRANCH REMAINS 
FAIRLY STRONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES STILL MIGRATING ENE..ONE OF 
WHICH APPEARS JUST W OF THE REGION NEAR 22N146W. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS S TO 
NEAR 30N135W MAINTAINING MODERATE NE TRADES S OF 25N W OF 128W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS 
MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR TEHUANTEPEC WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE 15 
TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. 

$$
RRG