000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N88W 10N99W 8N108W 7N120W 
6N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF AXIS E OF 84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION LIES FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 
100W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
123W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
EXTENSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LIES ABOVE 
THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...PUSHING 
INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA...IS INDUCING A SWLY 
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW N OF 26N E OF 122W WHICH IS PRODUCING A 
SLIGHTLY THICKER DECK OF CLOUDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. AT 
THE SFC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 
41N132W. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND INVERTED 
TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 22N E OF 122W. THIS NLY SURGE IS 
EVIDENT ON EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGES WHICH SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL 
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SPILLING QUICKLY SWD. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO SLACKEN TO BELOW 20 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS 
THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE N.

TROPICS...
NARROW FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC. ONE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N140W WITH 
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING EWD TO 125W. SCATTERED HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...CURRENTLY CONTAINED W OF 125W. ANOTHER FLAT RIDGE IS 
CENTERED IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN WITH ITS AXIS POKING WWD TO 
ABOUT 120W. S-SWLY UPPER FLOW AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO 
FUEL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W-110W.

A 1214 UTC QSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WEAK GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CANGIALOSI