000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 8N78W 11N100W 7N116W 
7N130W 7N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 5N81W AND 
6N83W. CLUSTER OF STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 7N98W TO 9N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 25 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 8N122W TO 8N130W TO 6N140W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 8N79W 
AND NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA HONDURAS.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TONIGHT OVER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE ALONG THE CA 
COAST WHILE A WEAKER ONE MOVES NE NEAR 24N128W. A SECOND WEAK 
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 25N110W. A 
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING N OVER THE SW CONUS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE IS ONCE AGAIN LOOKING LIKE IT'S REGULAR 
SELF..CENTERED N OF THE AREA ALONG 135W AND RIDGING SE TO 
15N105W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 
10N AND 24N W OF 125W AND NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. NO SSMI IMAGERY AVAILABLE.  
GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. THE EPAC SSW OF PANAMA HAS SW WINDS 
TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE NEXT BIG UPPER TROUGH IS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL N 
PACIFIC AND WILL MOVE EWD. AS IT DOES..A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL 
BEGIN BUILDING ALONG 130W. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE FROM THE S CENTRAL PACIFIC BRINGING MOSTLY 
HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH THEM. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 SOME 
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES DECREASING 
ABOUT 5 KT TO 15 TO 20 KT. NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST SHOULD 
ALSO DECREASE TO MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT. SOME 
INCREASE IN GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE EPAC SSW OF 
PANAMA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 
6 TO 7 FT.   

FOR DAY 2 THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NRN MEXICO 
AND THE SW CONUS WEAKENS SOME AS THE SHORTWAVE ON THE CA COAST 
MOVES INLAND AS WELL AS WEAK IMPULSES FROM THE S CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LOWERING 
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 25N W OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 
1027 MB PACIFIC HIGH WILL BE NEAR 31N134W RIDGING SE TO 15N110W. 
NE TRADES WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 8N AND 20N W OF 125W WITH 
SEAS OF 8 FT.  NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT 
WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
CONTINUE AT ABOUT 20 KT FROM THE N AND NE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
OTHERWISE OTHER GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. SW WINDS SSW OF PANAMA 
SHOULD DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

$$
RRG