000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 8N77W 8N94W 10N104W 
7N120W 3N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 9N96W AND 
8N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 4N79W 7N82W 8N92W 7N100W 7N102W. 
AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN N PACIFIC EXTENDS SE OVER 
OUR REGION N OF 20N W OF 120W. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FORM OF 
SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW..ONE OF WHICH IS 
ALONG 25N125W MOVING NE. OTHERS ARE N OF THE AREA. A FLAT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE LIES E OF 130W MOSTLY S OF 20N BUT RIDGES N ALONG 
114W OVER BAJA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS 
WEAKENED QUITE ABIT AND NE TRADES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE ALSO LIGHT FROM THE NW. GAP WINDS 
ARE ALSO LIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 130W 
AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ALONG 140W TO 35N. OTHERWISE THE 
SHORTWAVE OVER OUR AREA LIFTS NE TO 28N120W BUCKING UP AGAINST 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 113W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FLAT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES 
REMAINING MOSTLY LIGHT MOST AREAS EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE 
BETWEEN 9N AND 15N W OF 112W. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NWLY AND 
GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 A BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEIGHT 
FIELD. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA WHILE A 
WEAKER ONE MOVES TO 24N122W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST N OF THE 
AREA BEGINS MOVING E TO 36N132W AND WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON OUR 
REGION. THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA POKES IT'S NOSE NWD ALONG 110W ACTING AS A BLOCK TO THE 
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE IT'S USUAL SHAPE BUT REMAINS QUITE WEAK. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES OR NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. GAP 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.  

$$
RRG